Job Watch

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NOTE: see next note. I had planned to discontinue this page now that the election was over. However, with the impending ObamaCliff in play, it will be interesting to see how it impacts jobs, so for now, the page continues.


See also: "Doomsday: The US Worker"
Also, check out daily job cuts
Calculators and the "new normal"

NUMBERS TO WATCH: The Magic Numbers

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: 200,000 (however, now I see that the goal posts have been moved to 120,000) --  

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters. 

I will stick with 200,000 -- it's a nicer, "rounder" number to remember.

NEWS

May 17, 2013: the AP is reporting.

Nevada had the highest unemployment rate last month, at 9.6 percent. But it also had the biggest decline of any state over the past year, falling from 10.7 percent. Part of that decline is because many people have given up on their job hunts. But the state has also gained 22,700 jobs in the last 12 months.

North Dakota reported the nation's lowest unemployment rate, at 3.3 percent. The state has benefited from an oil and gas drilling boom.

May 16, 2013: one of the worst reports ever. Jumps 32,000 to 360,000, highest level in 6 weeks. Worse, it caught everyone by a surprise; huge surprise. Four-week moving average jumped to 338,000. It was also interesting to see that the previous four-week average was quietly raised to 339,250 (previously stated to be 336,750). This is one of the worse reports seen in quite some time, even though the headline only suggests six weeks.

May 9, 2013: though the headline says the jobless claims are at a near 5 1/2 year low, in fact, the numbers today are pretty much a wash. Last week's numbers were revised up 3,000, and this week's numbers dropped 4,000, to 323,000, a whole 1,000 less than last week.  The four-week moving average for new claims dropped 6,250 to 336,750 - the lowest level since November 2007.

May 2, 2013: jobless claims drop 18,000 to 324,000, a five-year low. Last week's claims were revised upward to 342,000 (an increase of 3,000). Four-week moving average dropped 16,000 to 342,250. That's incredible. Hopefully these numbers hold up next week, without revisions.

April 25, 2013: jobless claims drop 16,000 to 339,000 (forecast: 350,000). Last week's figures were revised upward to 355,000, higher than the forecast for last week.  Four-week moving average dropped 4,500 to 357,500. Same ol', same ol'. Continuing claims: 3.0 million vs 3.093 million last week.

April 18, 2013: jobless claims rise to 352,000 (forecast: 350,000). California sends in estimate, so next week's "revised" number will probably be even higher; four-week moving average also increases to 361,250 from 358,500.

April 11, 2013: jobless claims plummet -- down 42,000 to 346,000; largest weekly drop since mid-November. Interestingly enough the numbers for March 30 were revised upward, making them worse than originally reported -- again, California's numbers were estimated. Economists forecast a drop to 365,000, which was reasonable. It will be interesting to see what the revised numbers show next week. The numbers are seasonally adjusted which leaves room for all kinds of shenanigans, and, in fact, Reuters reported that the floating Easter holiday and spring breaks pose challenges for the "so-called" seasonal factor. The four-week moving average increased to 358,000.  The four-week average is a better measure of labor market trends.
 
April 5, 2013: March jobs number is horrendous. By any standard. Need to add 200,000 jobs/month to make headway. Some tried moving the goalposts to 120,000. Whisper numbers suggested the worse, at 150,000. So, the number, please ... drum roll .... 88,000. Labor force at level not seen since President Jimmy Carter's year of the Iranian hostage crisis, 1979. Labor force at 63%. 

April 4, 2013: horrendous. Economists had predicted a fall to 350,000. Instead spikes an incredible 28,000 to 385,000, the highest in four months. It will likely be revised upward next week when the estimated California numbers are in. The four-week moving average spiked 11,250 to 354,250.

March 28, 2013: weekly jobs report; incredible spin; the number rose to 357,000; previous week's number revised upward an astonishing 5,000; initial claims rose 16,000;

March 26, 2013: Wow, I've been saying this for two years, maybe longer: the great recession has been followed by the grand illusion; don't be fooled by the latest jobs numbers. The unemployment situation in the US is still dire.It's a very long article, but the statistics are daunting.

March 21, 2013: previous week's numbers revised upwards; total receiving benefits rose; 336,000 this week;

March 7, 2013: unexpectedly falls 7,000 to 340,000 (previous report revised upward); four-week moving average, 348,750

February 28, 2013: falls 22,000 to 344,000; analysts had expected number to fall only to 360,000 from 360,000 last week. Four-week moving average: 355,00.

February 21, 2013: 362,000. Rises significantly more than expected. Up 20,000. Expected: 355,000. Four-week moving average also increases to 360,750.

February 14, 2013: 341,000. Drops more than expected. Analysts had expected 360,000. Very interesting. Drop was 27,000.

February 7, 2013: 366,000. Last week's number was revised upward from 368,000 to 371,000.

February 1, 2013: unemployment rate rises slightly, back to 7.9%.

January 31, 2013: Analysts confused again! The number surges 38,000 --- now back up to 368,000. Analysts had expected the number to increase ONLY to 350,000. Earlier this month, "371,000," was the highest number in five years.

January 24, 2013: surprising report; caught analysts off-guard; had expected an increase to 360,000. In fact, down 5,000 to 330,000, the lowest in five years. Perhaps last week's report of a stggering drop of 37,000 was not a one-off. The four-week average: 351,750. Again, the numbers were estimated for several states, including California.

January 17, 2013: down to 335,000; lowest in five years; drops a staggering 37,000 in one week. Four-week moving average: 359,250.

January 15, 2013: from whitehousedossier.com:

Long term unemployment under President Obama is at the highest level since at least the end of World War II, threatening to create a permanent underclass of workers who will find it difficult or impossible to obtain jobs in the future. What’s more, Obama’s insistence on repeatedly extending long term unemployment benefits may be fueling the unemployment problem.

January 10, 2013: no estimates today; the "real" data. First time claims benefits (unemployment) jumped to the highest number in five weeks (371,000) and the four-week moving average jumped significantly to 365,750, a "gain" of almost 7,000.  Comment: that was the report. But yet the numbers/analysis don't quite match -- look at last couple of weeks. The number was 372,000 last week -- which means this week's number 371,000 is not the highest in five weeks (though, perhaps the revised numbers were different -- that 371,000 was an estimate). Also, the four-week moving average, though it showed a jump, is exactly the same as it was two weeks ago.


January 3, 2013: the numbers are bogus, again; nine states sent in estimates. The government says unemployment, first time-claims benefits jumped 10,000 to 372,000 this past week. After all is said and done, the unemployment rate went up and was revised upward the month before. After that, it's all spin.
 
December 27, 2012: the numbers are bogus, all estimates due to government shut down for holiday -- 350,000 last week; 365,750 four-week moving average.

December 20, 2012: huge jump; now up to 361,000 ---  most concerning: there was no explanation.

December 13, 2012: huge drop; now down to 343,000, lowest level in .... two months. The four-week moving average: 381,500.

December 7, 2012: Rounding, 75% of new jobs created in past five months were government jobs.

December 6, 2012: weekly -- 370,000; four-week moving average: 408,000. Gallup, unadjusted, unemployment takes huge jump; back to 8.3%; government figures: only 7.7%. Non-farm jobs added: 151,000. Remember: the magic number is 200,000.