Foreshadowing the Great Recession of 2013
The ObamaCliff (aka the Fiscal Cliff at the end of 2012 when the Bush tax cuts were due to expire): 98% were made permanent -- huge!
Who's Sorry Now, Connie Francis
May 19, 2013, Sunday talk shows:
- Obama aide: "Irrelevant where Obama was during Benghazi debacle."
- House rep: "Death is part of life."
- John Kerry: "I haven't learned anything new."
- Hillary: "What does it matter?"
- Art Carney: "It happened a long time ago."
- The president: "It's just so much noise."
And no one knows where the president was from 5:00 pm to 2:00 am the evening/the night of the Benghazi event. He did fly off to Las Vegas the next day for a political event.February 10, 2013: It's now official. "We" have just completed the worst five years since the Great Depression. Let's see: how long has this administration been in place? But Americans are content/satisfied (well, at least 47% are satisfied). For the IBD article, click here. Cue up Connie Francis.
January 31, 2013: the exchange:
Q: Given that Iran, the people — I’m quoting right now from Iran — people of the Middle East, the Muslim region and North Africa, people of these regions hate America from the bottom of their heart," said Inhofe. "It further said Israel is a cancerous tumor in the heart of the Islamic world. They further said Iran’s warriors are ready and willing to wipe Israel off the map. The question I’d like to ask you, and you can answer for the record if you’d like, why do you think the Iranian foreign ministry so strongly supports your nomination to be the Secretary of Defense?
Hagel responded, "I have a difficult enough time with American politics, Senator. I have no idea, but thank you. And I’ll be glad to respond further for the record."Early-onset Altzheimer's?
January 28, 2013: Mayor Bloomberg of NYC won't unilaterally disarm.
January 25, 2013: Wow, wow, wow! The Democratic Senate does not have enough Democratic votes to pass the Democratic president's "assault on weapons" ban.
January 25, 2013: abuse of power -- the president's recess appointments are/were illegal. Blow to unions. Blow to the president. Cue up Connie Francis.
January 23, 2013: Libya testimony with Hillary Clinton. Congressman notes that the only person held accountable for this debacle -- a filmmaker who is in jail. She missed the 3:00 a.m. phone call. US ambassador killed; first US ambassador killed in 35 years; on her watch, and her line: "What does it matter?" I can't make this stuff up.
January 18, 2013: Spending cuts limit Obama's agenda.
President Barack Obama starts his second term in office facing unprecedented budget constraints that will challenge his ability to implement his economic vision.
Spending caps that Obama signed into law in 2011 will make it difficult to boost investment in education, scientific research, transportation and other areas that he says will help the country retool for heightened global competition and rapid technological change, budget experts say.
Because those caps won't keep pace with inflation and population growth, the government will effectively have 16 percent less to spend in these areas by the time Obama leaves office in 2017, according to White House estimates.Anyone who thinks President Obama won't find away around these spending caps is a fool.
Huge "thank you" to a reader:
January 14, 2013: laws were meant to be broken, and best if the law-breaking started at the top. The current administration figured that out long ago. If the link breaks it has to do with the fact that the Obama administration has put in writing it tends to break the law when it fails to submit a budget by February 4. The photo is of a flock of sheep identified as the much talked-about, seldom-relevant Press Corps.
January 13, 2013: thirty seven states have single-party control of the entire state government: 25 GOP, 12 Democrat.
January 11, 2013: Four years without a budget, and now Senator Harry Reid tells President Obama that the president should prepare to raise the debt limit unilaterally. I believe the House controls the purse strings. This will be interesting. I hope Chief Roberts is boning up on the constitution.
January 11, 2013: the elites get armed protection; the rest of us don't, apparently. When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns. And the government. But I repeat myself.
January 9, 2013: a reader apparently is following the Benghazi, Libya, story, and provided links to a two-part series regarding the tragedy: from the Canada Free Press, Part I; and, Canada Free Press, Part II.
December 31, 2012: a) it appears it was Hillary who slept through a lot of 3:00 a.m. phone calls from Libya; b) listening to the president speak during the last 48 hours of ObamaCliff negotiations suggest he wants this to go over the cliff, and that he plans to max political points from the results.
December 28, 2012: "We're going to raise the debt limit. We always have. We will do it again." -- President Barack Obama, at 55 seconds into the video at the link.
December 22, 2012: with whom does the President negotiate the ObamaCliff if there is a vacuum in House leadership? Himself? It looks like John Boehner may be on his way out but that takes time. In the meantime, we go over the cliff. And it's very possible, that it was Boehner himself who "screwed the pooch":
Boehner has also lost favor with some conservatives after removing four Tea Party freshmen from their preferred committees for breaking with leadership on key votes.December 21, 2012: Kerry is nominated. Hillary leaves on a most sour note. Not only does she miss the 3:00 a.m. call, but she can't even bring herself to talk to Congress about it. I admired Hillary at one time. Not so sure any more.
December 15, 2012: Yes, it was a landslide. Americans are content/satisfied.
December 11, 2012: for archival purposes: President Obama admits and signed the document that says the Bush-era tax cuts worked. And that's why he's extending them for all but the top 2% -- and excluding the top 2% is for political reasons only.
December 6, 2012: MDW had already suggested this; now it's official -- Harry Reid does not have the 60 votes needed to pass the ObamaPlan to prevent going over the ObamaCliff. I cannot make this stuff up. This is going to be tougher than ObamaCare.
December 5, 2012: I posted this/predicted this elsewhere -- there are DEMS that don't want to go along with President Obama's "increase taxes" plan. The GOP asked to vote on President Obama's plan today; Senate Majority Leader said "no." That says it all. Even Senator Reid knows he doesn't have the DEMS to pass the "increase taxes" plan. "We" will go over the ObamaCliff; this will be harder than passing ObamaCare.
December 4, 2012: ObamaCliff? What cliff. Congress voting with its feet: leaving DC for a long weekend.
December 3, 2012: Wow, isn't this the truth. Egypt is imploding, collapsing. Due directly to President Obama's foreign policy. MDW blogged about this two years; finally, mainstream media dares to state the obvious.
December 3, 2012: the "ObamaCliff": a) the buck stops in the Oval Office; b) being re-elected, the president "owns" the economy; c) with an executive order he can bring the fiscal theater to an abrupt end. Yes, the "ObamaCliff."
November 29, 2012: tea leaves not looking good for Ms Susan Rice; moderate Republican Senator, Ms Susan Collins, prefers Senator Kerry; WSJ op-ed - The Trouble With Susan Rice -- her willingness to assume the role known during the Cold War as "useful idiot."
Amazingly, the other person most frequently mentioned as a possible secretary of state is Sen. John Kerry, who in the 1970s not only threw away his military medals and testified that his fellow soldiers in Vietnam were war criminals, but also said during a 2004 presidential debate that the U.S. shouldn't use its military power without invoking a "global test" and garnering international approval. So all this may be a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils—but at a minimum Americans should know fully what they are choosing.November 27, 2012: gun sales on Black Friday, 2012, breaks all records; so many purchases, the demand was so high that it caused outages at the FBI background check center on two separate occasions.
November 27, 2012: the president's pick for next SecState admits misleading Congress; but says that was not the intent; not clear whether she was part of conspiracy (meaning more than one person) involved in removing CIA findings regarding Benghazi; are Republican senators supporting John Kerry's (D) desire to be the next Sec State? Can one mislead another without intending to do so? It looks like even the New York Times is turning against her.
November 25, 2012: Nobel Peace Prize President will keep American troops in Afghanistan indefinitely. America's new frontier.
November 19, 2012: perhaps the most compelling political story currently on the front burner has to do with President Obama's choice for Secretary of State.
Everyone agrees that it should go to Senator John Kerry who has lusted after this position for years. Only because the president had to offer him something did Kerry's name come up as a possible Secretary of Defense. How many folks remember SecDefs -- except McNamara, and we know how that turned out. This recent tsunami about the "missing talking points" implicating Ms Susan Rice are being fueled behind the scenes by Kerry supporters. I have trouble believing his senate buddies won't favor Kerry over Rice. It will be interesting to watch this one play out. If President Obama insists on nominating Ms Susan Rice, my hunch is a Republican will use parliamentary tactics to put the nomination on ice. That will provide cover for the President's senate democrats.November 18, 2012: some interesting things are coming out of the most recent attack on Israel:
To their credit, President Obama and top European officials, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Foreign Secretary William Hague, have unequivocally blamed Hamas for launching an unrelenting campaign of rocket attacks on Israel’s civilian population. But none of them noted the extent to which Hamas and Iran are cooperating to attack Israelis and destabilize the Middle East.November 18, 2012: I'm pleasantly surprised.
President Obama supports Israel's response to Hamas, saying Israel has a right to protect itself. I would have expected a more diplomatic response from the President: "Israel needs to show restraint. I can understand their frustration but Israel is not the only country frustrated." [Later, same evening: I spoke too fast; I knew it was too good to be true. Obama is now telling Israel to use restraint. I can't make this stuff up. It is of note that the President has not told Hamas "to use restraint." Maybe limit rockets flying into Israel to only 250/day.]November 16, 2012: in the big scheme of things, President Obama did not do much of anything he promised the Far Left when he ran for his first term.
Whether one agrees with President Obama or not, and whether it is completely accurate or not, one can argue a) his health care program is as big as Social Security turned out for FDR; and, b) it can be argued his appointees saves the economy. And whether he deserves credit for it or not, "we" did get Osama bin Laden on his Mr Obama's watch. If the Far Left abandons Obama, two things: a) the Far Left is informationally-challenged; and, b) Obama doesn't need them anyway. He's not running in any more elections.November 13, 2012: Earth to GOP: get a grip. Conservatives should demand IQ tests of Republican candidates.
And though I have my anxieties about the president's next term, I also have a hunch the GOP dodged a bullet with Mr. Romney's loss.
It dodged a bullet because a Romney victory would have obscured deeper trends in American politics the GOP must take into account. A Romney administration would also have been politically cautious and ideologically defensive in a way that rarely serves the party well.
Finally, the GOP dodged ownership of the second great recession, which will inevitably hit when the Federal Reserve can no longer float the economy in pools of free money. When that happens, Barack Obama won't have George W. Bush to kick around.November 12, 2012: So there is no confusion/misunderstanding -- I am absolutely convinced the EPA will publish rules for hydraulic fracking.
November 10, 2012: Politicos expect EPA to start publishing regulations that have been put on hold waiting for the results of the election:
CEI [the Competitive Enterprise Institute] expects the EPA to move ahead on delayed rules on everything from greenhouse gas emissions to ozone standards.By the end of the year: federal regulation of fracking. New coal regulations by the end of the year. Just saying. But Americans who voted for Mr Obama are content/satisfied. Except in some "far-right" media publications, this push of EPA regulations won't be mentioned.
November 10, 2012: We spent the weekend in Cape Cod, so I had time away from the computer, just to reflect.
I am very content/satisfied with how things appear to be playing out. The Americans clearly were content/satisfied with how the nation is doing under the President (8% unemployment, $16 trillion debt; a most polarized nation), and you have to call it what it was: a landslide for the president. So, now we will get a chance to see how socialism plays out in the United States. I don't think well; I think we are headed for a very, very bad economy in 2013. So, those were my thoughts over the weekend. And then I find this headline in the news: Japan's economy contracts at fastest pace since the earthquake. Yes, everything point to a severe recession in 2013.November 9, 2012: if this graph at the link does not foreshadow a very, very deep recession in 2013, I don't know what would. I think there is a very good chance that the Dow will test 10,000. Again.
November 8, 2012: Stock market -- first day after election, it falls 300 points; today, the second day, it falls 120 points.
November 8, 2012: the day after the election I mentioned that recession was likely in 2013, see below. Today there is an article from CNBC saying exactly that -- headed for a recession.
November 8, 2012, 4:00 a.m. while shoveling snow ...
.... I had a feeling of malaise for the country. Even though there has been no change in the administration I feel a sense of suspended animation, waiting for what is to happen next. For the country, there will be no hiring except for seasonal hiring and minimal hiring to keep business going. Companies honestly do not know how much each employee will cost them in the New Year. And, I assume, most feel the economy will continue to slow down, and it's only a matter of time before we start talking about recession again. So, a feeling of general malaise, and perhaps worse, a feeling of suspended animation, as we approach the fiscal cliff. If there are no signs of improvement in the first six months of 2013, we can look forward to another four years of no economic growth, but lots of social meddling and lots of talk.
November 7, 2012
I failed to post this prior to the election; I thought about it fairly often. A huge clue that the Obama team knew he would be re-elected: none of his senior staff or cabinet secretaries submitted their resignation this past year with the excuse that that they wanted to spend more time with their families.
November 7, 2012
I opined that this election was all about turnout. This election failed to match the Obama-McCain turnout: 14 million lower turned out. What were they thinking?
November 7, 2012
Prediction: no more hiring for the foreseeable future. Recession in 2013. The "blame it on Bush mantra" worked for all of his first term, but President Obama now owns the economy. We will see in 2016 how that has worked out. For all of his first term, one could say he inherited his problems from Bush; as of January 20, 2013, all of his problems he inherited from himself. The rich will be poorer in 2013, but so will the poor. And especially the middle class. It's all relative. The delta between "poor" and "poorer" is not particularly great, especially if there are adequate safety nets in place (disability incomes, social security income, unemployment insurance, welfare, ObamaCare). The delta between "rich" and "not as rich" is one less Fisker. Or one less townhouse. But the delta between the middle class thriving and the middle class surviving is significant and will be felt acutely in 2014 if not sooner. The middle class who voted for President Obama will be asking sooner than later, "what were we thinking?"
November 7, 2012
I think when the EPA regulates fracking, those mineral owners in North Dakota who voted for a new Democratic senator will be asking: "what were we thinking?" Mineral owners are going to take the biggest hit, and that includes the state, the biggest mineral owner of all (?).
November 7, 2012
The ten defining moments of the first term. Six months from now, I expect to see this headline regarding the 2012 presidential election: what were we thinking?
November 7, 2012
I am thrilled that the electoral college and the popular vote and the chads were not an issue this year. A lot of unemployed lawyers, and a lot less less chatter on talk radio/television.
November 7, 2012
The morning after: the markets are not happy with the results: oil is down almost $2.00 and the Dow is down almost 200 points.
Israel has much to fear. The president is on record that if push comes to shove, he will support Muslims over non-Muslims (source: Dreams From My Father).
The EPA will see this election as a mandate. Federal regulation of fracking by mid-2014. There will be a regulatory moratorium on fracking, but no ban. The Bakken boom will come to an end. There will be a few questions: whether issued permits awaiting drilling will be affected; will the NDIC expedite the permitting process; will the backlog of permitted locations be sufficient to keep the oil companies busy enough while waiting for new federal permits (for newbies: the NDIC generally issues a permit in 30 - 60 days; it is estimated that it will take 24 - 36 months for the federal government to issue a permit ONCE the process is in place). The federal government would have to develop a process (12 - 18 months); during that time new fracking permits would be placed on hold.
With regard to the first question, whether issued permits will be affected, my hunch is that the federal fracking rules will mandate that wells not yet drilled, cannot go forward without review by the EPA.
We should start to see a significant decrease in infrastructure investment in the Bakken in 2013, as operators see the writing on the wall.
The US coal industry is history.
China, Russia, Venezuela, et al, are in a celebratory mood today.
Tracking economic growth, unemployment claims, unemployment figures, etc., no longer matters. Ideology trumps everything.
1917 comes to mind. Fifty years of going down the wrong road had lasting effect on Russia. As of 2012, Russia had not recovered.
The Keystone XL 2.0 will not be built.
November 7, 2012
Redistribution: carbon tax -- to raise money through redistribution
From a letter to the editor of some newspaper, sent in by a "James W. Anderson" of Talladega.
Twelve reasons why I voted Democratic in the 2012 election:
I voted Democratic because I love the fact that I can now marry whatever I want. I now may marry my Labrador.James says no trees, spotted owls, or red cock-headed woodpeckers were harmed in the sending of this message.
I voted Democratic because I believe oil companies' profits of 4% on a gallon of gas are obscene but the Government taxing the same gallon of gas at 15% isn't.
I voted Democratic because I believe the Government will do a better job of spending the money I earn than I would.
I voted Democratic because Freedom of Speech is fine as long as I agree with what is said and nobody else is offended by it.
I voted Democratic because I'm way too irresponsible to own a gun and I know that my lcoal police are all I need to protect me from murderers and thieves.
I voted Democratic because I believe that people who can't tell us if it will rain on Friday can tell us that the polar ice caps will melt away in 10 years if I don't start driving a Prius.
I voted Democratic because I'm not concerned about millions of babies being aborted so long as we keep all death row inmates alive.
I voted Democratic because I think illegal aliens have a right to free health care, education, and Social Security benefits, and we should take away the Social Security from those who paid into it.
I voted Democratic because I believe that businesses should not be allowed to make profits for themselves. They need to break even and give the rest away to the government for redistribution as the Democrats see fit.
I voted Democratic because I believe liberal Judges need to rewrite the Constitution every few days to suit some fringe kooks who would never get their agendas pas the voters.
I voted Democratic because I think that it's better ot pay billions for their oil to people who hate us but not drill our own because it might upset some endangered beetle, spotted owl, gopher, or fish.
I voted Democratic because my head is so firmly misplaced toward the south en of my body; it's unlikely that I'll ever have another point of view.