Some data points:
Bakken production growth between 2004 and 2010 was "insane." In case the link breaks, production in 2004 was 10,000 bopd; at the end of 2010, it was approaching 350,000 bopd. That's six years and includes both Montana and North Dakota. North Dakota's Bakken boom began in 2007. At the end of 2007, daily Bakken production was 75,000 bopd. That was just when single leg horizontal/liner/multi-stage fracturing began.Slide 19
Variations of slide 19, development of a spacing unit, are starting to pop up all over. I can't remember where I first saw this slide (CLR, WLL, BEXP, others).Slide 19
Well before this slide was ever published publicly I opined on this blog that the radius of fracturing appeared to extend out only 500 feet (laterally, 360 degrees). I picked up on that based on how close some horizontals were being placed.
With "tight" shale, it's all about fracturing.
This slide clears up some terminology for me: spacing vs development. The two terms are driven by two different sets of parameters or factors. Spacing is associated more with economics or the finances of a designated field. Development, on the other hand, is associated more with how close together wells can be placed in a designated field or area. (I am a layman with no formal training with regard to oil industry, so I assume there are better ways to articulate that.)Slide 21
On a 1280-acre spacing unit in the core Bakken, CLR suggests they can place 8 wells, or what is referred to as "320-acre development of the Bakken and Three Forks."
At approximately 500K EUR, this means as much as 4 million bbls EUR per 1280-acre spacing unit, or 2 million bbls/section, or about 3,000 bbls/acre. At $50/bbl, one can see why folks are paying $5,000/acre in the core Bakken.
It should be noted, that slide 19 only references two pay zones, the middle Bakken and the Three Forks. There may be other pay zones in some of these areas.
CLR suggests that the Williston Basin could be producing as much as 1 million bopd with 200 rigsSlide 22
The United States is now producing more than 50% of the oil that it consumes. I doubt most Americans know that. The lines crossed in the second half of 2010. It's interesting that we don't see more written about that in the mainstream media.
One can argue that with conservation, improved efficiencies in transportation, alternate energy for transportation, and continued growth in fossil fuel production in the US, "we" really could be energy independent. Certainly, with Canada to the north, Mexico and Brazil to the south, "we" could be completely independent of the Middle East in the not too distant future. (My hunch is that it won't happen in my lifetime. Maybe I will opine on that sometime.)Slide 23
The relationship between oil production and jobs is "insane." It's too bad we don't hear more about this in the mainstream media. I keep thinking of the "lost decade."