Sunday, October 17, 2010

Bailey Field Update

Summary: The Bailey is a prototypical Bakken field. Except for one outlier, file # 12927, a Missouri River Royalty Corporation well, with a status date of 2002, all of the permits in this field were issued during the current boom, and to the best of my knowledge, all wells target the Bakken Pool. All of the wells are still active (except the aforementioned MRRC well which is permanently abandoned).  The Bailey field, a moderately sized field, is "owned" by Marathon Oil. The IPs of the Marathon wells are consistently in the 350 - 500 barrels range.

UPDATES


April 25, 2012: a nice well reported -- 
April 28, 2011: it looks like it takes about three years for Bailey Bakken wells to get to 100,000 bbls of production.

The Bailey Oil Field

I sure wish I had taken a snapshot of some of the oil fields in the Williston Basin on the NDIC GIS map server at regular intervals over the past couple of years. The succession of photos would have been amazing.

While panning the GIS map server tonight I was struck by how "busy" the Bailey oil field was, and it was one of the fields I had not focused on until now (see sidebar at the right for descriptions of the various fields).

The Bailey field is on the south side of the river, across the river from the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation, and southwest of the very interesting Moccasin Creek field. (That's another field I need to update and put on the sidebar on the right.)

The Bailey field is an irregularly shaped field and moderate in size compared to other fields in the Bakken. It is about 164 sections in size, just under the equivalent of 5 townships. At the center of the field are  two townships T146N-94W and T146N-93W. The rest of the field is located north of these two townships (38 sections); west (16 sections); and south (40 sections).

The field is pretty much "owned" by Marathon Oil. Of the 120 file numbers (permits and wells) in this field, all but 15 are Marathon's. Burlington Resources has eleven, and XTO, Tracker, Hunt, and PDC each have one.

If I remember correctly, Marathon and BR played a major role in developing horizontal drilling which opened the Bakken formation, and thus it's interesting to see BR juxtaposed with MRO in this area.

The Bailey field is a prototypical Bakken field. Except for one outlier, file # 12927, a Missouri River Royalty Corporation well, with a status date of 2002, all of the permits in this field were issued during the current boom. All of the wells are still active (except the aforementioned MRRC well which is permanently abandoned).

The next earliest well is a Marathon well, #15854, Fedora 34-22H, pretty much smack dab in the middle of the field. All the rest of the wells are 2007 or later, with only 14 permits issued in the Bailey so far in 2010.

With 114 wells in this field, it's impossible for me to look at each well. Instead I will look at a string of wells running west to east along the southeast border of the field, picked randomly, but probably a representative sample. With one exception, they are all MRO wells, and they are all long laterals (the entire field is spaced at 1280 acres). Except for one file number with a rig on site, they are all producing wells:
  • 16868, 294, Feb 08, tested 3/08; 104K as of 3/11
  • 16764, 473, tested 10/10, 35K in 3.5 months
  • 17171, 391, Sep 08; tested 10/08; 95K as of 3/11
  • 16925, 409, May 08; tested 5/08; 93K as of 3/11
  • 17164, 340, Oct 08; tested 11/08; 71K as of 3/11
  • 18222, 756, Oct 09, Hunt; tested 11/09; 91K as of 3/11
  • 17216, 327, Dec 08; tested 2/09; 52K as of 3/11
  • 17528, 454, Jan 09; tested 2/09; 65K as of 3/11
I no longer care about high IPs, but the fact that these wells are all still active and that there is an incredible amount of activity in this field, I get the feeling that these wells are paying for themselves (at the wellhead) within three years, level off after the first six-to-nine months of decline, and then continue to produce for up to 20 years. Many of these wells would have been drilled before multi-stage fracturing was the norm. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all these wells were single-stage fractures.

Other than the village of Dunn Center, population 122 (2000 census), there are no other towns in this field and no major roads. At the far northwest of the field is the Little Missouri State Park. Some years ago I went horseback riding in this park, renting horses at Badlands Trail Rides. Somewhere I have a photo of my dad, my older daughter, and myself in a "Bonanza" pose before we headed out for the day-long ride. If I can find it, I will post it. It was absolutely incredible, riding horseback in the badlands of North Dakota. The scenery was incredible. I hope to introduce my two grandchildren to horseback riding at this site. And I hope we see a lot of wells. And no windmills (other than for well water).

10 comments:

  1. Transforming data into graphic chronologies is good fun. I've applied the idea to things like oil well development and town founding. It's not terribly difficult to do, and produces a transcendent learning experience. A recent example, which I may have seen from a link you provided, displayed economic change, by US county, played out over the past several years. It revealed a collapse, converging from the coasts, but not encompassing North Dakota. It would be a worthy addition to the current NDIC GIS. I know the system needs protection from overload, but it's all possible. The depth and breadth of this public data is ready for mining.

    Hess342

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  2. Yes, at the very top of the sidebar on the right: The Geography of a Recession (it was called something different earlier; this title leaves the politics out of it).

    It is absolutely amazing to see the encroachment of the recession as it swallows the nation, but stops just short of enveloping the Great Plains, North Dakota south to Kansas.

    I was surprised to see that the Baily field is a prototypical Bakken field; there is nothing there before 2006, except for two permits/wells.

    Focusing on these fields helps me visualize the landscape. Before I looked at the Bailey, I had no idea that that was where I enjoyed some great horseback riding many years ago.

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  3. You probably know this, but the NAIP 2009 layer (satellite imagery) can be activated on the GIS to produce a stronger association with surface features.

    I agree with your characterization of the Baily as prototypic Bakken. To me that describes wells that begin around 10,000 barrels a month and are at 2000 barrels 2.5 years later. Beyond the exceptional Parshall and Sanish which are doing 1 million or more a month, the Baily is among the next tier at around 200,000 a month. The Parshall may have peaked around 1.5 million just a couple months ago and has dropped about 300,000/mo in just 2 months with no significant well additions.

    You remind me of a badlands ride while in college with a horse trainer friend. We brought a pair of horses from Minot into the Teddy Roosevelt North Unit. The badlands are a challenging and awe inspiring ride and the ability of horses to deal with it is amazing. After a few days of camping we stopped at a ranch near the Lost Bridge and were welcomed for supper and fabulous hospitality. The rancher was the kind of character who leaves you feeling like you've touched history -treating us to his story, with the depression years clearly his most memorable. Unforgettable.

    Hess342

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  4. I know it's hard to believe, but I don't recall having ever explored the imagery capabilities of the GIS map server. I have used other sources, mostly Google Earth, but I have to admit, the NDIC GIS map NAIP 2009 imagery is breath-taking. Thank you.

    I have also enjoyed the ND State Water Commission site for aerial views (http://mapservice.swc.state.nd.us/).

    With regard to horses and badlands, I remember how the horses would "run" up short, steep inclines, but walk very, very slowly down those same inclines. I understood their reason for going slow going downhill, but I never understood why they would "run" to get up these short, steep inclines.

    It was also interesting to watch them approach water. Most of the horses would balk crossing the river, but a few horses took the water in stride. Based on horse-riding elsewhere, it appears that horses have no problem crossing rivers where they have crossed it numerous times, but if it's a new crossing, they balk.

    Off-topic, but I understand if you paint stripes on a highway, cows will balk at crossing them if they've been exposed to cattle guards.

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  5. I saw a horse completely refuse to cross a 4 inch wide trickle of water.

    In the week before leaving for my first year of college I went on a midnight horse ride and later discovered my wallet was missing. At college, maybe 7 months later, it arrived in the mail - money, drivers license, everything, weathered but intact.

    When I got my iPad and wanted to see how it worked as a bookreader, a sister-in-law suggested a book she'd just finished - Peace Like a River. Its catharsis is set in the North Dakota badlands.

    Just one Norwegian to another.

    Hess342

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  6. Thank you for the tip on the book. I just checked Amazon reviews and it must be superb. I will get it, thank you.

    I started an aggressive reading program in 2002, starting with all the 18th and 19th century classics and moved on from there. I am always looking for new authors, unique books.

    I have a literature blog but I don't do it justice; too busy with Bakken. I had a very nice literature blog a year or so ago, but erased it all and started over; a mistake.

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  7. How interesting - I tend to do my reading in themes. About 2002 a brother-law-law gave me Undaunted Courage as a Christmas present. It set off a search for history of the period including 3 Jefferson biographies (I'm into multiple authors on a topic, if they exist, to cope with bias) a couple Franklins, a Thomas Paine, some general histories, and then decided to read through all of the presidents chronologically. I found only 2 presidential autobiographies - Grant and Obama. Grant's was written at the end of his career and Obama's just out of college - both completely fascinating.

    The iPad is an interesting and usable book reader, but I prefer the new Kindle.

    Hess342

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  8. I assume you are talking about the "Memoirs of US Grant." I had read somewhere that is the best autobiography ever written. I was intrigued; took awhile to find it (I buy 99% of my books at Half-Price Discount). I loved it; one of my favorites. I ended up putting together a student study program (target audience: 8th graders) of the southern campaign in the Civil War. The memoirs provided a fascinating study of geography of the south at the time, particularly the river and railroad system, and how knowledge of that system was one of the keys to success in the southern campaign.

    I was impressed by the clarity of Grant's writing, and no "sour grapes" despite his situation after he was out of office.

    I love to "connect the dots" and one of my favorite discoveries was the handing off the baton from one writer to the next writer in various genres. Cervantes --> Defoe --> Joseph Conrad --> Hemingway --> Graham Greene --> Hunter S. Thompson --> Tim O'Brien. (It seems I am forgetting someone between Defoe and Joseph Conrad, but you get the idea.)

    The one percent of books I don't buy at Half-Price Discount Bookstores are the ones I buy at "Books on Broadway" in Williston, ND, during my annual visits. That's where I get all the ND books, including ones by Kathleen Norris, and Christy Leskovar's biography of her grandmother, "One Night in a Bad Inn."

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  9. You’re a prodigious fellow. Thanks for indulging me.

    From Grant’s autobiography we learn that…

    Grant wasn’t really US Grant. The congressman who endorsed him for West Point filled out the form incorrectly (with regard to the middle initial) and Grant decided to keep it. Although written late in life, it focuses on his early years and military career and little on his presidency. He failed at many attempted careers and the book was his only serious monetary success Samuel Clements tried to move in with him and do the writing but Grant wouldn’t have it. Immediately out of the presidency he traveled the entire world for nearly four years and was greeted with huge and adoring crowds everywhere. For reasons I don’t entirely understand, common people the world over knew of him and adored him. He actually planned to return from the trip just in time to run again – but it didn’t pan out.

    Just out of West Point he was sent to the US-Mexican border for what, it his words, was a deliberate campaign of provocation to induce an attack, so as to defeat the government and grab a large chunk of the Southwest “because we could”. It seems that his opinions were formed in part from his political persuasions – Whig rather than Democrat - at a time when the Democrats were driving the military campaigns.

    He was the first real Republican president inasmuch as Lincoln was a Whig who was drafted by the Republicans but never felt a kinship with them and viewed them as a part of the problem. Grant liked Lincoln and was a believer in the cause but was loath to discuss privileged information with him because he couldn’t be trusted to hold his tongue Grant didn’t like hunting and had no real interest in guns, but loved horses and was a master with them. He was a brilliant strategist who could conceive of and hold it all in his mind but was a distinct loner. His greatest passion at West Point seemed to be art. Certain members of his family tried to save his soul in his last few days, but he wasn’t having it.

    I'm mostly a library guy but ability to acquire books with a single click is dangerously seductive.

    I met Hunter Thompson in Minot many years ago and it was interesting to say the least - at once brilliant and pathetic.

    Hess342

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  10. The reasons I continue the dialogue are several:

    1) I tend to forget what I have read unless I talk about it, think about it, or re-read it;

    2) I like to think I am multi-faceted. Some people think my whole life revolves around oil. Hardly. The blog could have been on several subjects, but this was one niche that had few bloggers;

    3) Interesting about Grant's interest in art. I did not know that. Explains a lot. I feel very strongly that artists see things much differently than people like me, and thus might explain some of Grant's success as a strategist. Only after seeing Monet's home in France, and read many, many books on Impressionism, did I finally notice the dozen or more hues of green in the trees when I go on walks or run.

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