Thursday, December 17, 2009

Disclaimer

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site. Up until March 29, 2013, I used to answer personal e-mail with questions about investments and about my thoughts on specific wells. I never provided any investment advice. However, effective March 29, 2013, I will no longer respond to any personal e-mail regarding investments. There are many, many reasons. I may provide a quick e-mail reply suggesting the writer look at the welcome/disclaimer.

In addition, effective March 29, 2013, I will minimize my replies to folks requesting specific information about wells in the Bakken. I take those requests seriously, and have often done quite a bit of research before providing a pretty comprehensive (and lengthy) answer. It is interesting that in return, I have seldom received a reply suggesting the writer got my answer, much less a "thank you." I'm getting tired of providing so much information free of charge and not getting a "thank you" in return.

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This is a blog, short for "web log," or diary.  It was started for my use only since HTML provided a great way to track the Bakken boom. I decided to open it to the public for various reasons which I discuss below.  

I will make mistakes, and I have made some doozies. Most of the mistakes could have been avoided had I posted more slowly, and had the posts reviewed by an expert in the oil and gas industry. If something looks wrong, it probably is. If a mistake is brought to my attention, I will address it immediately. If I ever get the feeling that my posts on the Bakken are doing more harm than good, I will bring down the site. It is not my intention to mislead anyone on the Bakken. 

Again, this is a "web log," often being posted on the run, open to others for reasons discussed elsewhere. 

Photos: Unless it is explicitly stated that a photo or an item sent to me is not copyrighted, I assume it is okay to post it. I allow anyone to use anything on my post without permission including photos, unless there is a note that specifically states someone has requested the photograph not be disseminated. None of my own notes are copyrighted. Whether or not you attribute something you use from my site is up to you.

 Disclaimer: this site is not intended to be used for making investment decisions. I am an amateur with regard to the oil industry. I have simply enjoyed following the Bakken and am using the site to better educate myself. If others want to read it, that's fine. I invest in companies doing business in the Bakken, but I work very hard at remaining neutral in my posting when it comes to companies I may invest in. I am not a professional investor: I invest only for my own personal portfolio. It is often hard to separate fact from opinion when writing / reading a blog, so if you question something that might be incorrect or an opinion, you should verify it elsewhere.  

I do not intentionally post incorrect information. I frequently make typographical errors; in some cases they can be significant errors. If alerted to the errors, I will correct them as soon as possible. 

Bottom line: make no investment decision based on this blog.

Overview of the Bakken


CNBC Video
Original Post

WSJ: The Bakken Boom, February 26, 2010.
------> A basic analysis of the Bakken boom, February, 2010. <------
Is the Bakken overhyped?
Look at the IPs of the wells four years into the development of the Bakken, and note the cumulative oil produced for some of these wells on the "wells to watch" page.
The Bakken Rocks: The History of the Development of the Bakken in North Dakota
How and Where The Sweet Spot of the Bakken Was Formed, October, 2010.
Video of drilling and fracturing, March 2010.
Running With Oil, August, 2010.
Bakken Used as Model Around the World, October, 2010.

Really cool: in-flight magazine Delta Sky has a special issue on North Dakota. When you get to the "magazine" use the arrows at the top of the site to "turn" the pages." Posted, October, 2010.

Background
 
The purpose of this site started out as being educational. Over time it has added a fair amount of information about investing in the Bakken. It is almost impossible to discuss the Bakken without acknowledging the role that capitalism plays. Having said that, the site is an attempt to provide an overview of "the Bakken" and to direct folks to the news stories coming out of the North Dakota oil industry. It is very, very superficial in scope. I probably understand about 1 percent of all that goes on in the industry (if that much). I have a poor memory and often make simple mistakes, but will correct them when I become aware of them. I find myself making more typographical errors as the years go by.

I grew up in Williston, in the heart of the Williston Oil Basin (WOB) and have followed the oil industry my entire life, in a very general way. I invest in publicly traded companies through the stock market, but my investments in WOB are trivial compared to my overall investment portfolio. I own no mineral rights, and have no inside information regarding the WOB. I do talk with people who live there and occasionally receive information second- and third-hand. I do not subscribe to any newsletters or the North Dakota Industrial Commission website tools, although I may do that sometime in the future (subscriptions are relatively inexpensive).

I enjoy following the activity in the WOB, but am not sure that investing in the oil companies in the WOB is the best way to go; there are many other opportunities in the stock market that might be better. At the current time, of the Williston Oil Basin-related companies, I am invested in the following: MDU, BR (COP), CLR, NOG, ENB, EEP, BNI, SLB. I trade in and out of these companies with others in the WOB. I would never recommend any companies because everyone's investment styles are different. I am often accused of being too exuberant about the WOB, and I admit it. I find the oil activity in North Dakota very interesting. It's easy to be negative about things in life, so I tend to over-compensate in some areas by being too optimistic when it comes to the oil industry.

I am definitely a novice at all this, so if something I say doesn't seem correct, it may not be. There are many ways on the web to cross-check "facts."


The largest continuous oil reservoir in the continental United States.


Top Story of the Year 2012

North Dakota tops the rankings in MoneyRates.com’s list of 10 States Where Youth Rules, a study that compared a number of key factors across U.S. states to determine which ones offer the best conditions for young adults. The nine economic and lifestyle factors used in determining the rankings include: employment for young people, insurance costs for young drivers, college costs, affordability of housing, youth-oriented retailing, nightlife, healthfulness, the state’s youthfulness and housing availability.

The 10 best states for young adults, as determined by MoneyRates.com, include:
1. North Dakota
2. South Dakota
3. Iowa
4. Montana
5. Nebraska
6. Delaware
7. Vermont
8. Alaska
9. Utah
10. New Hampshire
North Dakota earned the top spot largely on the strength of its economic conditions, including a 3.3 percent unemployment rate for 20 to 24-year-olds. But it also scored well in a number of social measures, including having the highest concentration of 18 to 24-year-olds of any state in the union.
The highest concentration of 20- to 24-year-olds? They're all rough necks, truck drivers, oil field workers.

The Blog
(Nothing below has changed)

The "old" Million Dollar Way was very eclectic: literature, music, "the Bakken," energy in general, and personal musings. Ninety-nine percent of visitors to the site visited only Bakken-related sites, and even then, only one or two specific pages. So, this site will, at least for the time being, concentrate on "the Bakken," more correctly the North Dakota oil industry. I have an emotional interest in "the Bakken." I wear my heart on my sleeve when it comes to "the Bakken." This is where I grew up. I have no background or connection with the oil industry. I own no mineral rights.

I am an investor, but my investments in "the Bakken" are trivial compared to my overall investments. I am more emotionally attached to "the Bakken" than interested in investments. I have no inside information. I do not subscribe to any premium services regarding "the Bakken." I no longer live in North Dakota, but I visit at least once a year and see first-hand what is going on. My information comes primarily from the NDIC website and the internet in general.

Occasionally I will get input third-hand or fourth-hand from someone I know still living in the Williston area. (Williston, North Dakota, USA, is at the center of the Williston Oil Basin, home of "the Bakken.") Bottom line: I'm pretty much a novice at all this. I know I will make many mistakes on this website but will correct them when brought to my attention.

I would not use my site to make investment decisions, although it may be one of several data points to lead you in certain directions. Much of what I write can look factual, when in fact it is opinion or my general understanding of the issue. Over time, I assume this site will evolve, based on reader feedback. As expected, it was hard not to have op-ed pieces, and some have already been added.

The site's name. The friends of the "old" Million Dollar Way know that the name of the site has nothing to do with money -- at least not directly in terms of me or investing. When I was growing up, the road leading out of Williston was known as the "Million Dollar Way" because of the automobile dealerships and businesses related to the oil industry.

The "Million Dollar Way" was my road out of town to an exciting life. This "Million Dollar Way" site is a new road leading me to new destinations.


For an overview of the Bakken, check out a WLL presentation
Profile of Williston, North Dakota, USA.
North Dakota: Most Economically Stable State, November 2, 2009
The Oil Drum's Assessment of the Bakken, November 2, 2009
Harold Hamm's Assessment of the Bakken, December 7, 2009
Analysis of the Bakken, 2006. "Bakken shale may prove to be productive."
Historical photographs of the early North Dakota oil industry (Shemorry), linked April 29, 2010
Bakken Reserve Estimates, 2006
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This blog seems to be optimized for Firefox/MacOS. I find errors in formatting when I check the blog on Internet Explorer browsers; perhaps they are older versions of Internet Explorer.

Updated: August 29, 2012 (not all items updated). 

April 30, 2013, 1:25 pm: 4,503,783 (~ 6,446/day)
April 1, 2013, 9:28 am: 4,316,824 (~ 6,820/day)
March 5, 2013, 8:26 pm: 4,139,487
February 14, 2013, 12:38 pm: 4,003,893
Overnight, February 13 - 14, 2013: 4 millionth visitor
Projected, 4 millionth visit -- February 14, 2013
February 7, 2013, 10:34 am: 3,951,795
February 5, 2013, 10:10 pm: 3,941,692
February 2, 2013, 6:40 pm: 3,917,397
January 13, 2013, midnight: 3,768,876
December 7, 2012, 9:00 pm: 3,539,177
December 7, 2012, 10:00 am: 3,535,852
December 6, 2012, 9:00 pm: 3,533, 287
December 5, 2012, 12:30 pm: 3,522,944
August 29, 2012, 8:00 pm: 3,003,324
July 29, 2012, 2:00 am: 2,824,722
May 19, 2012, 7:00 pm: 2,448, 351
April 25, 2012, 11:59 pm: 2,313,351
April 24, 2012, 8:00 pm: 2,305,724
April 22, 2012, 10:30 pm: 2,294,212
April 22, 2012, 10:00 am: 2,290,554
April 18, 2012, 9:00 pm: 2,272,860
April 18, 2012: 7:30 am: 2,268,233
April 17, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,266,779
April 17, 2012, 9:00 am: 2,261,783
April 16, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,259,499
April 15, 2012, 9:00 pm: 2,254,085
April 14, 2012, 10 pm: 2,248,705
April 14, 2012, 9:00 am: 2,245,945
April 13, 2012, 8:00 pm: 2,243,467
April 13, 2012, 6:30 am: 2,239,851
April 12, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,238,427
April 12, 2012, 7:30 am:2,233,226
April 11, 2012: 9:00 pm: 2,231,315
April 11, 2012, 10:30 am: 2,227,088
April 10, 2012, 8:30 pm: 2,224,002
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